Around one third of the worldwide agriculture flats could no longer be suitable for agricultural production 2090. To this result, a study of finnish and swiss scientists for the case that no further maws were taken against educational awareness. The worst affected were the computer models according to sahara sahara, sudamerika as well as in sud and sudostasia. In germany, the agricultural flakes were still in the safe climatic space, but there were subtropical walder in some regions.
The study of a group around matti kummu of aalto university in espoo (finland) is in the journal "one earth" appeared. "The good news is that only a fraction of food production has never been exposed to existing conditions if we were jointly reducing emissions so that the emission was limited to 1.5 to 2 degrees", explains kummu. In this case, 2090 were only about eight percent of farmers and funf percent of the pastureland outside of suitable climatic conditions.
Fewers no longer offered the needed conditions
Kummu and colleagues took the period 1970 to 2000 as the basis for climatic conditions, among which 95 percent of farming and livestock. These conditions defined them as "safe climatic room". Then they relate to these conditions with changes that will result from climate change according to models from the progress reports of the world climate (IPCC). The most favorable scenario is the so-called sociooconomic development path SSP1 in conjunction with the representative concentration path RCP2.6. The most unnecessary product development after the scenario SSP5-8.5, if no measures were taken against climate change.
In the most unnecessary case, 31 percent of farmers and 34 percent of the grazing climates were no longer available. Each one more third of the flat goods are heavily danger to fall out of the safe climatic room. Some lander became particularly massive: guyana and surinam in sudamerika, ghana and guinea-bissau in africa and cambodia in asia. In these states, 95 percent of the agricultural flax was no longer in the zone of appropriate climate conditions. Even in many of its neighboring states, 80 to 85 percent of today’s useful floors could no longer offer the needed conditions.
More than four million square kilometers new weste
The vegetation was also strongly responsible for the calculations in continued climate change: boreal walder and tunren were heavily losing weight, in the tropics, the dry forest was greatly increasing and warned were growing in all climatic zones. "If we let the emissions rise, the increase in the custodian areas is particularly worrying, as hardly anything can grow without delay under these conditions", says kummu. By the end of this century, more than four million square kilometers were created worldwide.
Further factors such as population growth, soil degradation and increased risk for weather extremes could still strengthen the effects of the climate crisis. "We have to mitigate climate change while increasing the resistance of our food systems and societies", stresses co-author matias heino, also from aalto university.