End of the german “corona wunders”

End of the German'corona-wunders'

Image: bennett tobias / unsplash

In germany, more and more people die of covid-19

The news were already. And they were already to be true. During the early morning of 2020, the pandemic worldwide gripped and the number of dead in many countries rising steeply, germany seemed much less affected. Although the number of registered corona cases rose temporarily even exponentially. But any miracle seemed to make sure that a disease at covid-19 in this country had potentially less than dead consequences.

"Why do so few germans die on the coronavirus?", wondered on NBC news in the USA. No other coarse country come close to germany: high falling numbers, only a few dead. Why was that? Was it the high number of intensive beds or the later occurrence of the pandemic? Or did the death rate in germany only saw lower because it had been scratched by a high number of tests?

The business magazine forbes reports end marz: "compared to other countries, germany remains an excretive with respect to a very low mortality rate of coronavirus traps and minimal numbers of covid-19 patients in severe or critical condition." in italy, so forbes, the mortality rate was twenty times so high.

Germany: "one of the strongest lander affected by the pandemic"

Even the time magazine did not hide the comparatively low number of german covid victims: "with more than 63.000 confirmed traps of covid-19 to 30. Marz is germany, according to official statistics, one of the strongest lander affected by the pandemic." but the fallest goodness rate is one of the world’s lowest. As a main reason for dafur believed time to identify the high german test frequency. So was the low mortality only a statistical artifact?

If the germans have broken the curse of the catastrophe, asks the new york times given the great numbers. Or is it due to the efficient tracking of infection traps by the health officers? Also possible, so the times, that germany better protect its alter population and initially infected themselves mostly more young people. But the times also has another theory: "it is quite possible that germany is easy to turn."

The skepticism with which the foreign media in the spring of the year 2020 meet the supposed german corona miracle is already entitled from logical reasons. This was also pointed out in this country (in the blind flight through the pandemic). Because it is not clear why the virus should behave differently within german limits than outside. If she was not a blobes artifact of the number material, the ‘comparatively low mortality’ (RKI) was in germany, presumably only a presative phanomena.

Ustableness: will germany be adding to other countries?

After almost a year of the pandemic and now almost 20.000 people who died in germany in connection with covid-19 speaks no one from a german exception. Although the country still has a relative advantage, because the situation is relatively less devastating than in other countries. But germany has already caught up. And the curves, which map the numbers of the death trap, continues to show steeply upwards.

As the federal statistical office communicates, the number of death encloses in the first week of november was five percent over the average of 2016 to 2019. Already in october, the deaths in germany were four percent, this corresponds to 2.777 people, about the average of the past four years. This surprises set up with a thrust of the number of all death encloses, for example, since mid-october.

In the same period, for about in mid-october, the number of corona trap rose and, at two to three weeks time delayed, also the corona-dead, strongly. In the first week of november (45. Kw) there was 1.067 reported covid-19 death trap. In the last november week (48. Kw) were already 2.101 death trap. The number of corona dead has almost doubled since mid-october. Since the beginning of december, the four highest day-to-day deaths have been reported since the beginning of the pandemic. (status: 05.12.To).

To increase the christmas mood, hardly contributes that the situation in other countries is even worse. According to data from euromomo, the uber prestige was in mid-november (46. KW) in italy, belgium and switzerland "extremely high", in france and austria she was "very high", she was in spain and portugal "high". In all these countries, the second wave set up several weeks earlier than in germany. Thus, it is expected that the likelihood of significant overlimeability in germany will not be reduced in the next few weeks.

Germany conveys the situation of other states, even the much diminished italy. At the beginning of may italy recorded about 28.000, germany about 6.700 covid 19 death trap. At the beginning of december, the number of death in italy is 59.000, in germany at 18.700. The distance is still considerable. But the development has accelerated in germany. Whether the numbers will be incorporated, is not safe. But it is already certain that germany has not succeeded in decoupling from the general direction of movement of the pandemic.

The comparison with italy is still interesting for another reason: SARS-COV-2 has already spread in italy in the fall of 2019. There are new studies that have determined for the virus specific anti-body in samples of asymptomatic patients from all over italy. Probably, so the amption, the virus was in circulation long before the epidemic was virulent – or recognized -. But should the pandemic in italy have actually used earlier, so it is self-consuming that germany will catch up even further.

Markus soder has complained that day that the lives, which are lost in connection with covid-19, are not sufficiently addressed in germany. Maybe a reason for the no longer true impression that less died in germany. "It is not explaining for me", so soder, "why in the public debate the subject of death trap is not rated high." in fact, given strongly increasing case numbers, public attention should increase. Where he is right, just a bavarian minister prosident has right.

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